Fictional Republic Baseline

• Security Budget Crossroads

  Gated

  Military planners insist on ring-fencing security funds; social ministers argue for shared sacrifice.

  Ring-Fence Security+0.06

  Austerity Cuts → 0.12PinSet Lever

• Closing the Mandate

  Gated

  Goal gaps look favorable and advisors ask whether to declare victory now or push for stretch goals.

  • Opens in 8q
  • Score needs +4.8
  Push for Stretch Goals+25

  Infrastructure Spend → 70PinSet Lever

• Confidence Bloc Threatens Vote

  Gated

  Parliament's unity caucus signals they will force a confidence vote unless social anger cools.

  • Opens in 6q
  • Consent needs -11.0
  Offer a Unity Dividend+0.06

  Social Safety Net → 0.24PinSet Lever

• Keep approval above the line

  Public Mandate

  Monitor closely

  Below its line, reforms stall. Give households a win they can see.

  55.0%

  Floor

  3.0 pts above the floor
  • Raise Social Safety Net before announcing cuts or tax rises.
  • Tie each grid or housing project to a place people can name.
  Adjust Social Safety NetAdjust Green Investment Budget

• Keep inflation under the line

  Price Stability

  Stable

  Inflation near its line costs approval. Act before people expect it to keep rising.

  3.0%

  Cap

  1.8 pts under the cap
  • Raise Energy Subsidy briefly and pause cuts to cool prices without stalling growth.
  • Point grid and housing spending at the shortages pushing prices up.
  Adjust Energy SubsidyAdjust Austerity Cuts

• Keep the deficit under the line

  Fiscal Deficit

  Stable

  Markets react when the deficit crosses its line. Show discipline early.

  5.5% of output

  Cap

  0.7 pts under the cap
  • Cut in small steps over two quarters, not one big hit.
  • Raise Income Tax Rate a notch before cutting investment.
  Adjust Austerity CutsAdjust Income Tax Rate

• Foreign Exchange Reserves225 bnFails if < 20 bn

  Revenue closes the deficit that drains foreign reserves.

  StableAdjust Income Tax Rate
• Revolt Pressure8Fails if > 90

  Transfers cool household anger before it reaches the street.

  StableAdjust Social Safety Net
• Governance Tension12Fails if > 95

  Easing cuts lowers the friction between state institutions.

  StableAdjust Austerity Cuts

Warning signs